Each panel is staffed by a neutral Panel consensus forecasting who looks after the paper-work, checks time-keeping, helps with weighting calculations, etc. A further panel of five top managers come to a decision on their preferred option to pursue and how it shall be implemented.
Matching this strong demand is the large volume of readily available forecast information from governments, international agencies and various private firms.
In much the same way as the previous phase though possibly with more analysis the selection panels endeavour to reach consensus. There is no time is built in for research, it is assumed that due to large number of people involved that the necessary knowledge is available, therefore sensible decisions can be made based on Panel consensus forecasting and voting.
There may well, of course, be duplicates amid the resulting 15 3 x 5 lists, as the three panels are working independently in parallel.
However, if repeated nowadays, much of it might be computer and network based within a much flatter structure, making it much simpler operationally.
The ideas are divided up randomly between 15 screening panels of 15 people each, carefully chosen for their shared familiarity of the field. Rather than try to identify a single best forecasting method, an alternative approach is to combine the results from independent forecasters and take an average of the forecasts.
And even though it is only a simple approach typically an unweighted mean averagethis method is just as useful as other more sophisticated models. Another argument in favour of this method is that individual forecasts may be subject to numerous behavioural biasesbut these can be minimised by combining independent forecasts together.
Furthermore, averaging forecasts is likely to be more useful when the data and the forecasting techniques that the component forecasts are drawn from differ substantially. Hence, combining is seen as helping to improve forecast accuracy by reducing the forecast errors of individual forecasts.
An empirical study carried out by Roy Batchelor in demonstrates greater accuracy in the consensus forecasts over macroeconomic projections produced by leading multinational agencies such as the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Each problem is presented in a comprehensive up to 2 pagesstandardised way Title, Problem statement, Key points of the idea, Description of how it might be implemented. However, deciphering the best forecast method is no easy task, and largely depends on the objectives of the user and the constraints they are likely to face.
The use of equal weights in the combining method is appealing because of its simplicity and is easy to describe. Again, each has hours to reach consensus about what it considers the 5 best ideas, though this time they have to write statements justifying their choice.
Indeed, more recent studies in the past decade have shown that, over time, the equal weights combined forecast is usually more accurate than the individual forecast which make up the consensus.
Unless a particular forecast model which produces smaller forecast errors compared to other individual forecasts can be identified, adopting the consensus approach can be beneficial due to diversification gains. Through simulation, one will be able to assess whether proposed strategies are likely to produce the desired objectives within predefined limits.
The underlying picture is that of progressive filtering through a series of selective funnels c. Quantile Regression Averaging QRA involves applying quantile regression to the point forecasts of a number of individual forecasting models or experts.
Paraphrasing Key Words The panel consensus technique was designed for use in large organisations e. Moreover, many factors can affect the independent forecast and these, along with any additional useful information, might be captured by using the consensus approach.
This results in a short-list of 75 15 x 5 ideas to pass on to the next phase. In recent decades, consensus forecasts have attracted much interest, backed by the publication of a huge swathe of academic research on forecast accuracy. For the latter phases to make sense, this phase needs to generate at least ideas.
Companies such as Consensus Economics and Blue Chip Economic Indicators specialise in publishing economic forecast data, with the former covering most major regions of the world and the latter focusing on the US economy. Empirical studies show that pooling forecasts increased forecast accuracy.
Even if one method is identified as the best, combining is still worthwhile if other methods can make some positive contribution to the forecast accuracy. Originallywhen it was described, it required a lot of clerical and administrative support, and must have been a very cumbersome process, implying a many-layered hierarchy; indeed the method read like an awesome explanation for delayering!The panel consensus method, is by bringing the internal members or experts from all level in the company together, and have a open discussion about a product or activity, any people is allowed to give their own opinions, and the meeting will end when a consensus.
This method of taking a simple mean average of a panel of independent forecasts, derived from different forecasting methods, is known as combining forecasts and the result is often referred to as a consensus forecast.
Definition of consensus forecast: Average or joint forecast derived from the forecasts prepared by the different departments and levels of management of an organization.
Dictionary Term of the Day Articles Subjects BusinessDictionary Business Dictionary Dictionary Toggle navigation. Panel Consensus Forecasting. Forecasting Business forecasting is the process of studying historical performance for the purpose of using the information gained to project future business conditions so that decisions can be made today that will assist in the achievement of certain goals.
The panel consensus technique was designed for use in large organisations (e.g.
a military service) with a capability for generating a large number of ideas (perhaps or more) that would then need to be narrowed down (Taylor, as described by VanGundy, ; )).
panel consensus A judgmental forecasting technique by which a committee, sales force, or group of experts arrives at a sales estimate.Download